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Chris Martenson

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Insights for Prospering as Our World Changes
Updated: 1 hour 43 min ago

Off The Cuff: The End Of The Easy Money Era

August 17, 2017 - 15:29

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Wolf Richter discuss:

  • Growing Signs Of Recession
    • Autos, retail, restaurants...
  • Dark Times For Commercial Real Estate
    • Bad enough that the Fed is worried
  • The Retail Hosing Market Is Popping
    • Toronto as a case study
  • The End Of The Easy Money Era
    • It's legacy: way too many over-leveraged victims

Suddenly, the tranquil seas long enjoyed by the markets have turned turbulent. Chris and Wolf react to the sudden volatility returning to stocks, the growing flood of recessionary indicators, the recent Fed statement, and the signs that the real estate market may have finally indeed topped out.

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today.

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Categories: Economics

Daily Digest 8/17 - Why Elites Are Winning The War On Cash, How Arsenic Is Poisoning A Nation

August 17, 2017 - 08:03
  • Why Elites Are Winning The War On Cash
  • Are China And India On The Brink Of War In The Himalayas?
  • Bank of America Warns of an ‘Ominous’ Sign for Stocks
  • Rogoff, Orwell and Kafka
  • Broadening Internal Dispersion
  • U.S. cities step up removal of Confederate statues, despite Virginia violence
  • The Growing List of Money Managers Cutting Their Exposure to Junk Bonds
  • Debt, Dollars, DOW, War, Silver and Shirts
  • The Single Biggest Bullish Catalyst For Oil 
  • How Arsenic Is Poisoning A Nation

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Categories: Economics

I Just Added To My Short Position

August 16, 2017 - 11:01

Last year, I detailed out my personal investments in the report How My Portfolio Is Positioned Right Now. It turned out to be one of our most popular articles over the past few years.

In it, I mentioned that I'll do my best to update our subscribers when I make a material change to my portfolio allocation.

Well, I just did.

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Categories: Economics

Daily Digest 8/16 - Hunger Crisis Hits Venezuela, What Happens If You Don't Pay Your Student Loans

August 16, 2017 - 05:09
  • Hunger crisis hits Venezuela
  • CalPERS $100K Pension Club up 63% Since 2012, Watchdog Says
  • Hartford, With Its Finances in Disarray, Veers Toward Bankruptcy
  • Milliman: Corporate Pension Funded Status Rises $4 Billion in July
  • Bipartisan group of House members drafting proposal to avert shutdown, default
  • Here’s what happens if you don’t pay your student loans
  • Americans have once again taken on record debt loads

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Categories: Economics

Daily Digest 8/15 - World USD GDP Seems To Have Peaked, The Gold vs. Bitcoin Cage Match

August 15, 2017 - 06:30
  • Money Laundering Scandal at Australia’s Largest Bank Triggers Another Call for Ban of Cash
  • World GDP in current US dollars seems to have peaked; this is a problem
  • Women’s March to reconvene around 2018 after Charlottesville
  • Update gone wrong leaves 500 smart locks inoperable
  • Misdemeanor Defendants Facing Jail Time Not Told They Have a Right to Counsel, Bar Association Finds
  • Don’t Chase the Gold Price, Warns Rick Rule
  • The Gold vs. Bitcoin Cage Match: Place Your Bets
  • These Scientists Took Over a Computer by Encoding Malware in DNA

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Categories: Economics

Brien Lundin: If They Don't Want You To Own It, You Probably Should

August 14, 2017 - 17:39

One of the most perplexing mysteries to us is that right as the Federal Reserve embarked on QE3 -- which was a huge, enormous, $85 billion a month experiment -- commodities began a multiyear decline within two weeks of that announcement. Concurrently, the world’s central banks plunged the world into steeply negative real interest rates, a condition that has almost always resulted in booming commodity prices -- but not this time. Today, the ratio between commodity prices and equities is at one of, if not the most, extreme points in history.

To explain that gap, we talk this week with Brien Lundin, publisher of Gold Newsletter and producer of the New Orleans Investment Conference (where Chris and Adam are speaking on Oct 25-28):

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Categories: Economics

Daily Digest 8/14 - SpaceX Returns To Flight, Betting Big On Ride Sharing Tech

August 14, 2017 - 07:55
  • Justice Department opens civil rights investigation into Charlottesville crash
  • Indian state suspends hospital chief after deaths of 60 children
  • Unlearning the myth of American innocence
  • The Breakthrough: How a Small News Outlet Brought Down the State Hero
  • Malls and Restaurants Schedule Workers at the Last Minute. Oregon Just Made That Illegal.
  • After a month-long break, SpaceX aims to return to flight today
  • Automotive Giants Are Betting Big On Ride Sharing Tech
  • Wildfires Force Evacuations Along the French Riviera

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Categories: Economics

Daily Digest 8/12 - Risks Are Rising While Low Risks Are Discounted, “What, Me Worry?” Markets

August 12, 2017 - 09:39
  • Why Some U.S. Ex-Spies Don't Buy the Russia Story
  • New York Fed chief Dudley has an idea — homeowners should tap into equity
  • Risks Are Rising While Low Risks Are Discounted
  • “What, Me Worry?” Markets
  • Boss tells state workers: Kick ICE out of California labor offices
  • What Trump Needs to Know About North Korea's History
  • Is America Talking About Opioids the Wrong Way?
  • Court keeps Great Lakes wolves on endangered species list

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Categories: Economics

Joining The Quiet Revolution

August 11, 2017 - 19:08
Executive Summary
  • Knowing, Doing & Being
  • Preparing for and embracing de-growth
  • Getting your perspective straight
  • Ways to participate

If you have not yet read Part 1: Signs Of Distress available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

How We Fix This

At Peak Prosperity our model for squaring up to reality and taking action has three components.

Knowing – refers to gathering the best and most complete data and letting it tell the tale. Often this is hard work, mainly because much if it is ‘not happy data’ and sometimes leads to grief, such as when I view the decline in butterfly populations.

Doing – once armed with the data that says “DO SOMETHING!” we figure you should probably do something. The Eight Forms Of Capital framework in Prosper! lays out a great starting point for anyone. Stepping through each form of capital not only makes you more resilient for any future that might arrive, but happier, more well connected, and healthier today. It’s a win-win and that’s why we like it. Of course Adam and I live what we preach, so there’s nothing in there that we are not following ourselves.

Being – nothing that we do will matter in the end of we humans do not find a new way to be on this planet with each other. We need to be able to tame our egos to the point that we can finally know when to say “enough!” because we know that more stuff isn’t where our happiness and contentment come from. Further we need to remember that are a part of not apart from nature. Reconnecting to the natural world is a huge and important part of being alive and content. Mastering being allows us to experience lives of amazing abundance, in part by being grateful for what we do have rather than consumed by what we do not have.

Once we are on the path of aligning ourselves and our actions with the reality of the world we become...

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Categories: Economics

Signs Of Distress

August 11, 2017 - 19:06

The world is edging closer to the final moments after which everything will be forever changed.

Grand delusions, perpetuated over decades, will finally hit the limits of reality and collapse in on themselves.

We’re over-budget and have eaten deeply into the principal balances of all of our main trust accounts. We are ecologically overdrawn, financially insolvent, monetarily out past the Twilight Zone, consuming fossil fuels (as in literally eating them), and adding 80,000,000 net souls to the planet’s surface -- each year! -- without regard to the consequences.

Someday there will be hell to pay financially, economically, and ecologically as there simply isn’t any way to maintain these overdrafts forever. Reality does not renegotiate. Its deal terms aren't compromisable.

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Categories: Economics

Off The Cuff: The Path Forward

August 11, 2017 - 11:14

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris talks about:

  • Our Ecological Budget Is In The Red
    • Our short-sightedness is dooming us
  • Our Economic Budget Is In Similar Danger
    • Again, we are living way above our means
  • Politically, We're Stumbling Badly, Too
    • North Korea, Russia, Syria, domestically...the list is long
  • We Can Do Better
    • There are plenty of better models out there, if we look for them

Recording from vacation on a small island in Maine with no power, this is different than our standard Off The Cuff. Chris takes time to reflect on the repercussions of our poor policy choices and how those are manifesting in the world. What makes our mistakes so regrettable in his eyes is that there are clear ways to do things better -- we don't need new magical solutions to appear; there are models that work right on the table, ready for use; if only we're bold enough to embrace change.

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today.

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Categories: Economics

Daily Digest 8/11 - Good News Friday: A New Kind Of Classroom, Saving Wild Sunflower Seeds

August 11, 2017 - 08:19
  • A New Kind Of Classroom: No Grades, No Failing, No Hurry
  • Smog-Eating Bikes Are About To Take On Beijing
  • SpaceX is launching a supercomputer to the International Space Station
  • Goat Owns Cop, Refuses to Get off His Patrol Car
  • Hard Lessons In Living Off The Grid
  • Meet the Scientists Hunting and Saving Wild Sunflower Seeds
  • EPA Reverses Course On Ozone Rule

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Categories: Economics

Daily Digest 8/10 - Next Market Crash Will Not be Televised, Towards An Ecology Of Agriculture

August 10, 2017 - 07:10
  • U.S. Credit-Card Debt Surpasses Record Set at Brink of Crisis
  • Surface Calm in the S&P 500 Masks a Spate of Blowups
  • Estimating Market Losses at a Speculative Extreme
  • Record Number Of Officers Leaving Dallas Police Department
  • Gold 'could be used in cancer treatment'
  • The Next Market Crash Will Not be Televised
  • Russia Eyes Rapid Middle East Energy Expansion
  • Study: Philadelphia Tax Makes Soda More Expensive Than Beer
  • US federal department is censoring use of term 'climate change', emails reveal
  • Towards an Ecology of Agriculture: An Interview with Steve Gliessman

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Categories: Economics

Daily Digest 8/9 - Chicago OT Costs 'Out Of Control,' Consumers' Total Debt Climbs To Record

August 9, 2017 - 08:22
  • Large employers say health plans will cost more than $14,000 for an employee in 2018
  • Chicago’s Overtime Costs ‘Out Of Control’
  • Venezuela inches closer to default
  • Comptroller Says Governor is Stalling on Bill Backlog Borrowing (Illinois)
  • Pension deficits: have bean counters got the sums wrong? (UK)
  • ECB stretches bond-buying rules with oversized Italian purchases
  • AP EXPLAINS: Daunting budget deadlines loom for government
  • U.S. Credit-Card Debt Surpasses Record Set at Brink of Crisis
  • Consumers' total debt climbs to a fresh record
  • The Fed’s economic ‘experiment’ isn’t over, KC Fed’s Esther George says

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Categories: Economics

The War On Gold Intensifies

August 8, 2017 - 10:27

The War on Cash is now spreading to gold.  The Powers That Be want to assure that you have no escape hatches, no means of avoiding the financial and economic pain they are about to visit upon you and yours.

They hate gold because it represents a vote against them every time someone chooses gold over their own poorly-managed fiat currency.  They hate cash to the extent that real cash (i.e., physical banknotes) held outside of the banking system might allow you to avoid having your savings stolen during an overnight application of new banking rules (e..g, a bail-in) that would transfer your wealth into whatever financial hole your idiot bank executives had managed to dig for themselves.

These ridiculous moves tell me that we're nearing the end-stage of this long-running farce.  Too many years of stimulating borrowing above and beyond any reasonable expectation of ever paying those debts back have now driven the system to a terminal stage.

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Categories: Economics

Daily Digest 8/8 - The Quitting Economy, Have Smartphones Destroyed A Generation?

August 8, 2017 - 07:43
  • Have Smartphones Destroyed A Generation?
  • The Soft Control Human Hack of the Private Market Rise of “Chip Culture”
  • The Quitting Economy
  • How U.S.- Chinese Tensions Could Impact Energy Policy
  • The Cost Of Light Through The Ages
  • Trump White House Says U.S. Will Join Climate Talks, Despite Leaving Paris Deal
  • Nations Will Start Talks to Protect Fish of the High Seas

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Categories: Economics

Richard Sylla: This Is An Inherently Dangerous Moment In History

August 7, 2017 - 11:42

"The rates we’ve had in recent years, including right now, are the lowest in history. The book that I co-authored on the history of interest rates traces back to the code of Hammurabi, Babylonian civilization, Greek and Roman civilization, the Middle Ages, the Renaissance, and early modern history right up to the present. And I can assure our listeners that the rates that they’re experiencing right now are the lowest in human history."

So says Richard Sylla, Professor Emeritus of Economics and the Former Henry Kaufman Professor of the History of Financial Institutions and Markets at New York University's Stern School of Business. He is also co-author of the book A History Of Interest Rates

We invited Professor Sylla onto the podcast after hearing his work favorably referenced by the panel convened at the recent hearing held by the US Congress titled: “The Federal Reserve’s Impact on Main Street, Retirees and Savings.”

Based on his deep study across the scope of millennia of human history, Sylla warns we are at a dangerous moment in time.

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Categories: Economics

Daily Digest 8/7 - Tenants Under Seige, A Tale Of Two Countries

August 7, 2017 - 07:56
  • Tenants Under Siege: Inside New York City’s Housing Crisis
  • Struggling Americans Once Sought Greener Pastures, and Now They're Stuck
  • A Tale Of Two Countries (Or How The Fed Enabled Corporate Kingpins To Scalp Billions)
  • How to Catch a 147% Gain in 7 Days
  • There’s a debate raging in science about what should count as “significant”
  • Miranda Devine: Perth electrical engineer’s discovery will change climate change debate
  • NAFTA’s ‘Broken Promises’: These Farmers Say They Got The Raw End Of Trade Deal
  • DA wants agriculture subjects in elementary, high school

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Categories: Economics

Daily Digest 8/5 - "Inflate Or Die," Distracting The Public From Economic Decline

August 5, 2017 - 07:14
  • Geopolitical Tensions Are Designed To Distract The Public From Economic Decline
  • Only Ten Years After the Last Financial Crisis the Banks Are At It Again
  • STUNNING RESULTS: Four Top Primary Silver Miners Production Plummets
  • “Inflate or Die,” Peak Silver and Gold’s Coming Breakout
  • Kevin Myers
  • Peco bill to hook Chesco man's solar array into grid: $45k
  • David Stockman Warns Trump "The Swamp Is Undrainable"
  • Choosing Your Ride

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Categories: Economics

WEBINAR: The Health Effect - with Robb Wolf & Chris Kresser

August 4, 2017 - 11:45

What specific steps should you consider taking in your own life to improve your physical and mental health, and how can you best incorporate these into your current lifestyle? To answer those questions, we're producing our next Peak Prosperity webinar, titled "The Health Effect", featuring two of the absolute top experts today in functional health: Robb Wolf and Chris Kresser.

The event itself will take place on Wednesday, August 23 at noon EST/9am PST. It will last approximately an hour and a half.

The price to participate in this webinar is $25, unless you are an enrolled member (i.e. paying subscriber) of PeakProsperity.com. In that case, it's FREE

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Categories: Economics